Dazed and Confused: Where next for UK plc on the global stage? Jericho Conversations with Nick Baird
In case you missed it, we recently interviewed Nick Baird, as part of our Jericho Conversations series.
We explored Britain's evolving role in global affairs, examining its past, present, and future trajectory. If, in 1946 Britain had lost an empire but was yet to find a role, things are now even more complex for a medium-sized nation trying to go it alone in a very volatile world.
Nick drew from his rich experience as Chair of the Trade Remedies Authority, former UK Ambassador to Turkey, and Chief Executive Officer of UK Trade & Investment. Jericho Partner Matthew Gwyther asked Nick to share his unique insights into the complex narratives surrounding Britain's foreign policy, exploring how historical perspectives have shaped its contemporary role on the world stage.
Thank you for joining us (if you did), and sorry you missed it (if you didn’t!). It was a great conversation. Below, we’ve captured some of the best bits from the webinar and you can listen to the episode as a podcast here:
You joined the Foreign Office 41 years ago from university. For somebody who would have been joining up as a new graduate recruit this year, what principal differences do you think they would have noticed?
Towards the end of the noughties, there was a period of great optimism and real trust in globalisation. It was generally speaking a period of time where there was huge optimism about international engagement and significant economic growth at a macro level.
“What we’ve seen in the last 15 years is a growing lack of trust in globalisation and move back towards a more nationalistic approach.”
After the global financial crisis, we've seen the rise of populist parties in Europe, we've seen Brexit and then COVID-19. Now, of course, President-elect Trump has won a convincing victory in the US based on very nationalistic policies. The way a diplomat is going to engage has changed.
Do you feel that the extent the UK’s international influence has increased or declined globally?
I think it's different rather than less. From a positive point of view, the assets we have are strong, the 6th biggest economy, very open and a champion of free trade. Now that we’ve chosen a path of being an independent mid-sized power we have to tread that path carefully and build more alliances for different sectors. However, we should not underestimate our capacity to be powerful internationally provided we focus on it.
Did you see the Brexit vote going the way that it did?
I think Britain did take a distinctive and different approach than that of most European countries when it came to the EU. Around issues of harmonisation, there was a much stronger sense of sovereignty; an opt-out of the single currency for example. I wouldn't have expected the Brexit vote to go the other way.
Have you seen any economic benefit from Brexit to the UK?
Small bits. When we left the European Union, we took control of our own trade policy and the work that the Trade Remedies Authority does. In some cases, we did not need certain tariffs because they were there to defend industries in other parts of Europe. There is opportunity to now be more precise in defending our own industries.
It’s also interesting and positive that the current government is focusing on areas where it is not against UK interests to harmonise with European standards and therefore to remove bureaucracy.
Could Turkey play a role in bringing peace to the Middle East?
Turkey is a good example of an independent state that uses diplomatic skills and different alliances very effectively to play a great negotiating position. However, I think it's become complicated for Turkey to play a role in the Middle East, largely because relations with Israel have historically been strong. I don't think it's completely out of the question that they would have a role to play and so I would certainly advise anyone who's trying to achieve mediation in the Middle East to at least consult Turkey.
What do you think about Trump and what will the UK government be thinking and planning?
The first term of Keir Starmer's government will be defined more than anything by how effectively he develops the relationship with the United States under President Trump. The stakes are very high.
The advice that I'd be giving is a mixture of diplomatic practicalities and policy. On the practicalities side, we've got to use our distinctive assets to build that relationship and the royal family is clearly one of those. We also need to build close relationships with him and key advisors around him, and the appointment of ambassadors is critical. I think we have got an embarrassment of riches in that space.
Concerning the big policy areas like Russia, Ukraine, the Middle East, trade and so on, I’d advise using arguments that chime with US interests. There should also be real discipline around communications; being careful not to disagree publicly and emphasising in public statements the areas where there is commonality.
We must also take note of why this was such a big win in the United States. When we are pushing globalisation and free trade, now and in the future, we have to have an argument for how it addresses the position of the ‘Rust Belt’ in the states and the equivalents in our own countries. How does free trade benefit those communities? Without it, we slip further in the direction of protectionism.
What of the role of experts?
I think governments work best when you have a creative tension between politicians, civil servants and experts. I recognise some of the criticisms that civil servants can be too slow and not sufficiently open to disruptive and creative ideas. You need politicians who can respect and engage with the expertise but not allow it to slow them down. It’s a really important balance.
Do you feel momentum has been lost around the green transition and what effect might a Trump administration have?
I think it's difficult to judge and I wouldn't judge momentum entirely by what COP achieves either. Although COP is important in providing a framework, I think a lot of this is going to be done by countries and regional groups.
“I think the biggest challenge is making the transition more affordable for ordinary people.”
In most of our countries, people are recognising that the weather events they're seeing are not normal, but asking, what can I do? I can't afford an electric vehicle and those sorts of things. At the same time, government input into energy infrastructure needs to be paid in some way, either on people's bills or by taxation. This is one of the biggest challenges and the public sector and private sector need to work together to figure out how to make it more affordable for people.
How do we keep to our British values in our dealings with other governments?
There has to be a balance between principles and pragmatism. We have to be able to engage with countries that do things that we don't approve of. If we didn't, we would unwittingly be heading off into a protectionist ‘Little England’ nightmare.
There's such a wide range of significant powers which do not operate politically in the same way that we do. We have to try to exert influence and make that part of conversations with them, but I don’t think we make them absolute conditions. We have to keep the world as open as we can in terms of trading, flows of investment, travel and cultural exchange. Change happens from the bottom up and people being able to see what freedom can give them elsewhere.
About #JerichoConversations
Jericho Conversations is one of a number of initiatives that spontaneously emerged during the first COVID lockdown – part of a determination to use moments of crisis to pivot towards a better, fairer, more equitable and sustainable future for all. By popular demand, we have reignited the series to help find surprising and refreshing solutions and insights into a world in constant flux. Each conversation – led by an expert speaker – is designed to keep Jericho communities engaged and thinking about “what comes next?” for business and society.
November 2024